Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC +188 UVM -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +11 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -1.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -0.7 (+10.3) | 134.8 (-13.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -0.1 (+10.9) | 134.2 (-13.2) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -1.1 (+9.9) | 135.1 (-14.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -1.1 (+9.9) | 135.0 (-14.0) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | UMBC 74 – 59 UVM |
| Feb 19, 2026 | UMBC 75 – 62 UVM |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UVM 64 – 55 UMBC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UVM 79 – 69 UMBC |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UMBC 80 – 63 UVM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-6 | 10-5 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 10-4 |
| Home | 5-4 | 6-3 |
| Away | 9-2 | 4-2 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 63.4 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#132) | 6.2 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#132) | -0.31 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#142) | 0.25 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#129) | 0.471 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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