Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | TNST -125 TNTC +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +5 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -2.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (+41.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -1.2 (+3.8) | 138.0 (+39.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -1.4 (+3.6) | 140.3 (+36.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -1.0 (+4.0) | 141.2 (+35.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -0.9 (+4.1) | 140.2 (+36.8) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | TNTC 90 – 85 TNST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | TNST 88 – 76 TNTC |
| Feb 22, 2025 | TNTC 77 – 74 TNST |
| Jan 24, 2025 | TNST 89 – 77 TNTC |
| Feb 14, 2024 | TNTC 70 – 50 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-19 | 5-22 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 5-15 |
| Home | 4-8 | 5-6 |
| Away | 0-10 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -11.3 (#324) | -11.6 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.18 (#338) | -2.69 (#334) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.75 (#335) | -3.31 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.381 (#338) | 0.412 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 26.1% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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