Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | GONZ -4500 SMC +1700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +22 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -21.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -17.5 (+4.5) | 144.9 (+7.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -15.8 (+6.2) | 140.3 (+11.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -18.6 (+3.4) | 144.7 (+7.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -18.1 (+3.9) | 145.3 (+6.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SMC 70 – 59 GONZ |
| Feb 1, 2026 | GONZ 73 – 65 SMC |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GONZ 58 – 51 SMC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SMC 74 – 67 GONZ |
| Feb 2, 2025 | SMC 62 – 58 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-1 | 14-10 |
| Conference | 15-0 | 4-6 |
| Home | 12-0 | 9-3 |
| Away | 7-0 | 2-3 |
| Neutral | 12-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 91.0 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 62.6 |
| Massey | 25.4 (#1) | 6.7 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.39 (#2) | 1.47 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.12 (#2) | 1.77 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.663 (#1) | 0.574 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.1% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.9% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 78.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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