Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | HPU +500 WIN -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +6 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | WIN -9.9 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (-2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -8.5 (+2.5) | 144.7 (+1.3) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -7.4 (+1.4) | 143.3 (+2.7) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -8.2 (+2.2) | 144.2 (+1.8) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -7.7 (+1.7) | 145.4 (+0.6) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | HPU 91 – 76 WIN |
| Feb 21, 2026 | HPU 89 – 87 WIN |
| Jan 14, 2026 | WIN 92 – 75 HPU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | HPU 81 – 69 WIN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | HPU 88 – 66 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-15 | 23-2 |
| Conference | 6-11 | 17-1 |
| Home | 5-5 | 11-1 |
| Away | 4-10 | 10-0 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 67.0 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#263) | 6.4 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#312) | 1.76 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#293) | 2.53 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#286) | 0.587 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 78.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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