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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–10 on winners spread MAE 12.4 85 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
North Carolina @ Kansas +13.4 147.3 83% 89–92 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Purdue +14.0 143.0 83% 50–72 ✓
Morehead State @ Cincinnati +33.6 145.4 91% 56–83 ✓
Grambling @ Ole Miss — — — 64–66 —
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Green Bay — — — 90–76 —
Georgia Southern @ UNC Wilmington — — — 84–92 —
William & Mary @ Radford — — — 77–89 —
South Florida @ Charleston +17.2 150.9 87% 71–86 ✓
Davidson @ Bowling Green — — — 91–85 —
Siena @ Bryant — — — 90–88 —
Presbyterian @ NC State +17.9 150.1 85% 72–81 ✓
Holy Cross @ Rhode Island +24.5 145.6 90% 77–91 ✓
Hampton @ George Washington — — — 54–82 —
Murray State @ Pittsburgh — — — 68–83 —
Purdue Fort Wayne @ UCF — — — 68–75 —
South Carolina State @ South Carolina — — — 64–86 —
Western Carolina @ Queens University — — — 54–67 —
Eastern Kentucky @ East Tennessee State — — — 82–78 —
Massachusetts @ West Virginia +10.7 146.2 79% 69–75 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Virginia Tech +22.3 144.3 88% 74–93 ✓
Iona @ Hofstra — — — 76–90 —
Saint Francis @ Clemson +23.2 144.0 89% 62–88 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Saint Joseph's +8.1 132.8 71% 73–67 ✗
South Alabama @ Nicholls +15.9 147.7 81% 70–64 ✗
Furman @ Belmont — — — 76–74 —
UL Monroe @ Tulane — — — 64–80 —
Georgia State @ Mississippi State +18.6 142.7 87% 66–101 ✓
Arkansas State @ Alabama +23.1 152.3 90% 79–88 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Texas A&M +9.2 138.6 78% 55–87 ✓
Houston Christian @ Texas — — — 59–90 —
Santa Clara @ Arizona State +0.6 128.2 50% 74–81 ✓
Yale @ UIC — — — 79–91 —
Howard @ Missouri +12.1 143.9 82% 62–77 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Maryland — — — 52–86 —
SIU Edwardsville @ Illinois +23.5 146.8 89% 58–90 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ TCU +21.2 141.7 87% 51–67 ✓
Princeton @ Duquesne -1.9 143.4 46% 75–68 ✓
Harvard @ Navy +7.5 138.8 76% 80–85 ✓
NJIT @ Villanova +11.5 135.5 74% 54–91 ✓
George Mason @ Marquette +21.9 142.6 88% 63–82 ✓
Northwestern State @ Texas Tech — — — 65–86 —
Northern Colorado @ Colorado — — — 88–90 —
UC Riverside @ BYU +19.1 142.8 88% 80–86 ✓
Long Beach State @ South Dakota State — — — 79–80 —
San José State @ Pacific — — — 67–80 —
Tennessee State @ Colorado State — — — 79–87 —
Boston University @ San Diego +7.9 139.6 71% 60–74 ✓
UC Irvine @ Loyola Marymount — — — 66–51 —
Sacramento State @ Fresno State — — — 57–64 —
Montana @ Oregon — — — 48–79 —
Weber State @ Oregon State — — — 48–76 —
New Mexico @ UCLA +10.1 140.5 78% 72–64 ✗
Bradley @ Washington State +5.8 151.2 60% 74–91 ✓
Tennessee @ Louisville +15.2 136.6 81% 77–55 ✗
Little Rock @ Winthrop — — — 67–82 —
Fordham @ Seton Hall +12.1 130.5 83% 57–56 ✗
Wright State @ Miami (OH) +26.2 146.3 90% 81–68 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Dartmouth — — — 76–81 —
Colgate @ Drexel — — — 56–73 —
Delaware State @ Columbia +18.4 149.3 85% 62–83 ✓
Toledo @ Marshall — — — 90–80 —
Jackson State @ High Point +34.8 142.7 91% 71–80 ✓
Quinnipiac @ St. John's +23.2 145.0 89% 73–96 ✓
Rider @ Coppin State +0.9 130.9 47% 64–53 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Tulsa — — — 80–103 —
VMI @ Bellarmine — — — 76–71 —
Morgan State @ Longwood — — — 66–84 —
Omaha @ Minnesota +12.8 141.4 77% 64–68 ✓
Lafayette @ La Salle +14.1 130.2 82% 60–81 ✓
Old Dominion @ Arizona +21.4 150.2 86% 44–102 ✓
Bucknell @ Kentucky +5.4 146.1 60% 72–100 ✓
UTEP @ Utah Valley — — — 60–89 —
Coastal Carolina @ East Carolina — — — 59–63 —
Charlotte @ Utah State +21.1 148.8 88% 74–103 ✓
Fairfield @ Georgetown +13.8 149.4 83% 57–69 ✓
Cleveland State @ Kansas State +26.1 146.8 90% 64–77 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Canisius +0.1 138.6 28% 87–78 ✗
Troy @ New Orleans +3.5 148.4 60% 78–61 ✗
Wofford @ Lipscomb — — — 69–78 —
Louisiana Tech @ UT Arlington — — — 92–77 —
James Madison @ Norfolk State — — — 69–83 —
UC Santa Barbara @ Portland — — — 94–53 —
Memphis @ UNLV +12.8 152.2 83% 80–74 ✗
Marist @ Richmond — — — 79–72 —
Stonehill @ Providence +10.7 131.1 81% 49–76 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.