I have got the sharpest knife, so I get the biggest slice. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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25–10 on winners spread MAE 7.6 35 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Sacramento State @ Montana State +3.4 136.3 64% 71–74 ✓
Manhattan @ Iona +7.9 136.0 79% 57–60 ✓
Gonzaga @ Saint Mary's -1.0 135.2 46% 60–69 ✗
Nicholls @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +1.8 139.1 61% 81–73 ✗
Florida International @ Jacksonville State +4.1 137.1 67% 76–67 ✗
Denver @ South Dakota State +6.6 149.4 77% 68–76 ✓
Idaho State @ Montana +5.9 143.7 74% 58–72 ✓
Siena @ Niagara +9.2 130.7 84% 65–67 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ George Mason +0.1 137.2 46% 64–57 ✗
Florida State @ Virginia Tech +2.9 150.3 62% 86–76 ✗
UCF @ BYU +5.6 141.3 74% 73–87 ✓
Rice @ Wichita State +3.8 138.8 71% 81–88 ✓
Fordham @ VCU +7.0 136.8 77% 62–69 ✓
Fresno State @ Wyoming +4.6 138.8 72% 77–73 ✗
Notre Dame @ Wake Forest +7.9 137.7 79% 59–72 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Alcorn State +3.1 141.6 67% 75–63 ✗
USC @ Washington +1.7 152.9 53% 80–74 ✗
Oklahoma @ TCU +0.8 147.2 57% 70–77 ✓
UTSA @ Temple +2.1 148.6 55% 61–64 ✓
Xavier @ Butler +0.4 150.7 49% 76–72 ✗
San José State @ Colorado State +13.7 136.0 88% 62–72 ✓
Nicholls @ McNeese +14.1 138.1 88% 76–92 ✓
La Salle @ St. Bonaventure +6.3 138.5 74% 73–75 ✓
Oregon State @ UCLA +2.4 132.5 63% 57–67 ✓
Coppin State @ Norfolk State +11.5 130.8 87% 51–75 ✓
Rutgers @ Maryland +1.7 124.9 56% 51–65 ✓
Canisius @ Quinnipiac +3.7 142.1 69% 52–76 ✓
Florida International @ Sam Houston +7.5 142.3 79% 59–78 ✓
Georgetown @ Providence +9.5 143.5 80% 56–74 ✓
Lehigh @ Colgate +8.2 136.6 81% 55–74 ✓
Air Force @ New Mexico +14.8 145.8 88% 56–82 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Arkansas +5.6 148.7 71% 85–90 ✓
Kansas State @ Texas +2.9 145.3 63% 78–74 ✗
NC State @ Syracuse -0.0 151.9 50% 83–65 ✓
Saint Louis @ Duquesne +7.3 143.1 78% 73–83 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.