In North Carolina way back in the hills, there lived my pappy and he had him a still. "White Lightning" - The Big Bopper
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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14–8 on winners spread MAE 6.7 22 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
East Texas A&M @ Nicholls +6.6 143.5 77% 51–72 ✓
Stony Brook @ Hofstra +4.0 144.1 66% 63–59 ✗
Santa Clara @ Saint Mary's +8.2 139.1 80% 65–79 ✓
Denver @ Omaha +0.3 150.7 50% 66–63 ✗
Milwaukee @ Northern Kentucky +1.2 153.5 55% 82–75 ✗
Portland State @ Montana +4.8 142.6 71% 81–87 ✓
San Francisco @ Gonzaga +5.8 145.6 74% 77–89 ✓
Davidson @ Fordham -3.5 132.9 34% 63–71 ✗
Oklahoma State @ UCF +4.7 137.0 70% 62–77 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame -0.2 135.5 46% 80–84 ✗
George Washington @ La Salle +0.2 148.0 52% 60–61 ✓
West Virginia @ Cincinnati +10.0 144.0 82% 85–90 ✓
Louisville @ NC State +8.3 146.1 81% 85–94 ✓
New Hampshire @ Vermont +11.7 137.7 87% 59–66 ✓
Saint Louis @ Rhode Island -0.1 153.0 50% 74–71 ✓
Canisius @ Mount St. Mary's +1.7 139.5 59% 77–61 ✗
Bryant @ UMass Lowell +4.5 156.4 71% 70–77 ✓
Lamar @ McNeese +13.8 142.4 88% 57–76 ✓
Stony Brook @ Charleston +5.8 151.3 73% 79–82 ✓
Milwaukee @ Oakland +4.7 152.5 67% 76–83 ✓
Wagner @ Merrimack +7.0 125.1 71% 54–47 ✗
Miami @ Boston College -0.7 143.5 47% 65–81 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.