← All models
Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–4 on winners
spread MAE 6.5
12 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-0.2 | 141.5 | 50% | 69–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.8 | 141.9 | 80% | 68–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 139.4 | 69% | 58–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.9 | 145.1 | 55% | 73–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.9 | 150.5 | 63% | 83–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.9 | 134.3 | 72% | 56–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.2 | 148.2 | 82% | 57–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 144.2 | 65% | 71–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.5 | 151.0 | 74% | 71–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.5 | 150.0 | 75% | 69–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.3 | 137.4 | 57% | 49–59 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.7 | 142.2 | 67% | 91–82 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.