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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
35–4 on winners
spread MAE 10.9
39 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-3.0 | 135.3 | 36% | 66–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+27.5 | 154.1 | 91% | 90–104 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.5 | 139.7 | 73% | 61–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.9 | 140.2 | 78% | 64–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.4 | 148.6 | 88% | 63–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 140.0 | 68% | 68–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.2 | 145.1 | 86% | 47–93 | ✓ |
|
|
+38.5 | 138.7 | 91% | 51–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.3 | 135.3 | 89% | 48–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.2 | 138.8 | 85% | 77–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.9 | 138.5 | 84% | 59–103 | ✓ |
|
|
+35.3 | 137.2 | 91% | 79–100 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.3 | 139.6 | 90% | 61–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+24.3 | 140.5 | 90% | 51–99 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.4 | 135.0 | 86% | 61–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.6 | 151.9 | 82% | 48–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.3 | 147.8 | 87% | 67–88 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.8 | 132.5 | 39% | 69–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+22.7 | 150.2 | 91% | 61–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+23.5 | 153.4 | 90% | 78–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+26.9 | 139.3 | 91% | 71–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.4 | 144.6 | 88% | 69–92 | ✓ |
|
|
+35.1 | 151.4 | 91% | 71–107 | ✓ |
|
|
+28.9 | 158.1 | 91% | 81–109 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.0 | 134.1 | 33% | 89–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+23.4 | 145.1 | 91% | 54–107 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.4 | 149.0 | 89% | 56–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.2 | 152.7 | 73% | 88–100 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.4 | 131.8 | 80% | 58–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.9 | 144.4 | 52% | 79–102 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.8 | 141.1 | 86% | 85–95 | ✓ |
|
|
+25.4 | 146.4 | 91% | 85–99 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.0 | 147.5 | 89% | 63–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.8 | 157.8 | 84% | 80–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.1 | 144.2 | 41% | 65–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+20.5 | 147.2 | 90% | 65–97 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.0 | 149.6 | 24% | 63–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+23.7 | 141.8 | 91% | 56–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.8 | 139.4 | 90% | 59–85 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.