Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -33.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +23 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -27.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (+28.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -26.8 (-3.8) | 138.5 (+26.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -23.2 (-0.2) | 137.7 (+27.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -25.4 (-2.4) | 139.0 (+26.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -26.9 (-3.9) | 139.3 (+25.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-9 |
| Home | 12-5 | 6-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.7 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#46) | -12.0 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#98) | -2.34 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#73) | -3.69 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#208) | 0.436 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 37.9% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 35.0% | 13.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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