Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -39.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +36 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -38.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (+25.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -35.1 (+0.9) | 151.4 (+26.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | ARIZ -27.5 (+8.5) | 148.0 (+30.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | ARIZ -25.4 (+10.6) | 147.7 (+30.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -35.4 (+0.6) | 148.5 (+29.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-3 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 14-4 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-1 |
| Away | 9-1 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 11-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.2 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 77.5 |
| Massey | 24.6 (#4) | -9.2 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.81 (#1) | -1.01 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 8.50 (#2) | -1.82 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.697 (#2) | 0.477 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.4% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 43.6 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 42.1% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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