Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MOST -180 LIN +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | LIN -1.7 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (-10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIN -0.3 (+5.3) | 144.7 (-9.7) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIN -1.6 (+6.6) | 141.6 (-6.6) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIN -0.8 (+5.8) | 144.3 (-9.3) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIN -0.1 (+5.1) | 144.2 (-9.2) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2023 | MOST 79 – 57 LIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | LIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-10 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#293) | -2.1 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#250) | 0.28 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#253) | 0.12 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#268) | 0.511 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | LIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.8% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 63.5% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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