Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | HPU -3600 BRY +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +46 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -16.9 (+29.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (-14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -15.2 (+30.8) | 145.1 (-5.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | HPU -14.8 (+31.2) | 144.6 (-4.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | HPU -14.2 (+31.8) | 146.8 (-6.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -14.5 (+31.5) | 146.0 (-6.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 5-11 |
| Home | 17-1 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-2 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 63.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#108) | -7.7 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#169) | -2.21 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#155) | -3.05 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#186) | 0.428 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.74 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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