Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | KU -1450 DAV +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KU +29 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | KU -18.3 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (+12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KU -17.0 (+12.0) | 136.2 (+14.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -15.7 (+13.3) | 135.9 (+15.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KU -16.2 (+12.8) | 135.4 (+15.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -14.4 (+14.6) | 135.0 (+16.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-7 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 17.7 (#17) | 3.6 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.18 (#19) | 0.72 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.54 (#18) | 1.16 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.658 (#11) | 0.533 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.8% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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