Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | FSU -6500 JAX +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +24 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -18.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.2 (-6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -16.0 (+8.0) | 148.4 (+1.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -14.9 (+9.1) | 149.5 (+0.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -16.0 (+8.0) | 149.5 (+0.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -17.4 (+6.6) | 148.6 (+1.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#113) | -10.3 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#178) | -0.87 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#177) | -1.63 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#201) | 0.481 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 57.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 31.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.