Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UTEP +114 NDSU -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTEP +10 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -3.3 (+13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -3.9 (+13.9) | 135.4 (+6.6) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -2.6 (+12.6) | 136.1 (+5.9) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -2.9 (+12.9) | 135.3 (+6.7) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -3.0 (+13.0) | 135.3 (+6.7) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTEP | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 14-2 |
| Home | 9-7 | 13-1 |
| Away | 2-11 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#236) | 3.0 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.26 (#348) | 0.60 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.81 (#341) | 1.09 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#288) | 0.526 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTEP | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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