Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | DUQ -2100 CAN +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +44 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | DUQ -16.5 (+27.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (+17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -13.8 (+30.2) | 141.3 (+20.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -10.9 (+33.1) | 137.0 (+25.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -12.0 (+32.0) | 136.7 (+25.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -11.9 (+32.1) | 138.5 (+23.5) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-15 |
| Home | 12-6 | 7-8 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 62.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 71.4 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#182) | -12.9 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#210) | -1.37 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#216) | -2.27 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#225) | 0.453 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.7% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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