Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 169.5 Under |
| Money | GCU -5000 IUIN +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +13 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -23.3 (-10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -23.5 (-10.5) | 153.4 (+15.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | GCU -20.9 (-7.9) | 154.8 (+14.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | GCU -21.0 (-8.0) | 155.0 (+14.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -22.4 (-9.4) | 152.7 (+16.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 3-17 |
| Home | 13-4 | 5-9 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 89.2 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#83) | -11.8 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#95) | -2.04 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#100) | -2.76 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#91) | 0.373 (#347) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 58.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 61.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 33.7% |
Game Analysis
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