Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | JOES -325 CCU +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCU +6 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | JOES -2.9 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -6.1 (-12.1) | 140.7 (-10.7) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -4.3 (-10.3) | 137.0 (-7.0) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -3.5 (-9.5) | 136.9 (-6.9) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -3.6 (-9.6) | 140.0 (-10.0) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-8 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#261) | -4.5 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#186) | -0.27 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#232) | -0.76 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#213) | 0.479 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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