Betting Lines
| Spread | BC -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | BC -2100 FDU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +11 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | BC -19.9 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BC -15.7 (-4.7) | 142.6 (-9.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BC -16.8 (-5.8) | 141.0 (-8.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BC -17.0 (-6.0) | 141.7 (-8.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BC -16.3 (-5.3) | 139.6 (-6.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 28, 2024 | BC 78 – 70 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 65.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#178) | -16.1 (#354) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#238) | -3.70 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#198) | -5.42 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#241) | 0.354 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 60.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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