Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -25.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -5000 ECU +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +48 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -27.9 (+20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -23.3 (+24.7) | 143.8 (+6.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -22.8 (+25.2) | 138.4 (+11.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -24.2 (+23.8) | 137.6 (+12.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -24.3 (+23.7) | 140.5 (+9.5) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 18-0 | 7-10 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 15.4 (#31) | -8.3 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.70 (#12) | -1.26 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.16 (#12) | -2.16 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.657 (#12) | 0.467 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.71 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.3% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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