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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
29–7 on winners
spread MAE 11.1
41 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+30.3 | 155.1 | 91% | 49–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+32.2 | 129.9 | 90% | 57–92 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.9 | 142.6 | 37% | 84–88 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.4 | 144.1 | 83% | 67–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.1 | 136.0 | 87% | 70–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.0 | 148.6 | 87% | 93–89 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.5 | 144.5 | 76% | 56–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.7 | 154.8 | 82% | 77–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.8 | 138.1 | 77% | 68–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.9 | 130.1 | 32% | 74–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.7 | 145.2 | 76% | 48–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.3 | 139.0 | 88% | 69–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.1 | 138.7 | 81% | 70–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+17.8 | 142.6 | 86% | 62–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.0 | 144.9 | 84% | 52–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.6 | 141.0 | 89% | 80–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.9 | 132.0 | 84% | 42–63 | ✓ |
|
|
— | — | — | 63–80 | — |
|
|
+2.6 | 149.5 | 61% | 68–70 | ✓ |
|
|
— | — | — | 56–79 | — |
|
|
— | — | — | 45–91 | — |
|
|
+3.5 | 138.3 | 74% | 49–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.6 | 136.4 | 72% | 87–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.3 | 146.8 | 86% | 76–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.6 | 155.8 | 81% | 69–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.1 | 147.9 | 87% | 49–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.3 | 132.8 | 81% | 48–49 | ✓ |
|
|
— | — | — | 54–51 | — |
|
|
+20.2 | 143.5 | 90% | 60–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.3 | 146.9 | 88% | 43–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+32.9 | 143.6 | 90% | 54–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.2 | 142.8 | 87% | 53–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.5 | 146.0 | 89% | 55–99 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.1 | 148.9 | 76% | 88–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+22.0 | 148.5 | 90% | 86–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.8 | 129.2 | 88% | 58–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 150.1 | 73% | 54–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.5 | 147.1 | 88% | 95–98 | ✓ |
|
|
— | — | — | 71–77 | — |
|
|
-2.2 | 145.1 | 52% | 74–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.9 | 131.9 | 49% | 74–71 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.