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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
20–10 on winners
spread MAE 9.1
30 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baylor
@
Kansas State
|
+1.2 | 151.7 | 54% | 65–75 | ✓ |
Tennessee
@
Texas A&M
|
-4.1 | 128.5 | 35% | 63–68 | ✗ |
Miami
@
Virginia Tech
|
+0.9 | 155.4 | 53% | 76–70 | ✗ |
Murray State
@
Missouri State
|
+6.9 | 133.0 | 73% | 69–84 | ✓ |
Georgia Tech
@
Pittsburgh
|
+13.4 | 136.1 | 89% | 68–76 | ✓ |
Mississippi State
@
Missouri
|
+1.0 | 140.0 | 54% | 64–66 | ✓ |
VCU
@
Saint Joseph's
|
-4.1 | 137.6 | 35% | 88–63 | ✓ |
Saint Louis
@
Richmond
|
-0.1 | 142.5 | 50% | 78–81 | ✗ |
Western Michigan
@
Eastern Michigan
|
+3.4 | 155.6 | 62% | 59–66 | ✓ |
Akron
@
Toledo
|
+2.9 | 151.1 | 60% | 63–84 | ✓ |
Central Michigan
@
Buffalo
|
+11.6 | 147.3 | 85% | 35–63 | ✓ |
Kent State
@
Ball State
|
-4.0 | 138.2 | 36% | 70–82 | ✗ |
Northern Illinois
@
Ohio
|
+10.5 | 149.7 | 83% | 68–77 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Miami (OH)
|
+1.8 | 155.6 | 57% | 65–74 | ✓ |
Youngstown State
@
Robert Morris
|
-5.0 | 144.9 | 33% | 64–83 | ✗ |
East Carolina
@
Tulsa
|
-3.0 | 143.8 | 39% | 62–60 | ✓ |
Marquette
@
Creighton
|
+4.9 | 152.0 | 67% | 73–71 | ✗ |
Iowa State
@
Texas
|
+5.9 | 133.7 | 70% | 54–72 | ✓ |
Indiana
@
Michigan State
|
+0.7 | 134.6 | 53% | 65–80 | ✓ |
Texas Tech
@
Oklahoma
|
+2.8 | 136.7 | 60% | 74–63 | ✗ |
Georgia
@
Arkansas
|
+15.5 | 139.6 | 92% | 65–97 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
Wyoming
|
-7.1 | 149.1 | 26% | 65–55 | ✓ |
Fresno State
@
Air Force
|
+3.8 | 120.1 | 64% | 74–69 | ✗ |
San José State
@
Nevada
|
+9.6 | 133.7 | 81% | 51–66 | ✓ |
Colorado State
@
San Diego State
|
+12.1 | 142.5 | 87% | 58–77 | ✓ |
Bellarmine
@
Jacksonville
|
+4.7 | 116.4 | 67% | 63–61 | ✗ |
Boston University
@
Army
|
+5.1 | 142.0 | 68% | 73–67 | ✗ |
UMass Lowell
@
UMBC
|
-2.0 | 151.8 | 43% | 75–70 | ✓ |
Providence
@
UConn
|
+9.5 | 147.3 | 81% | 69–87 | ✓ |
Charleston Southern
@
UNC Asheville
|
+11.7 | 149.0 | 86% | 62–80 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.