Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -188 AKR +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +21 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -3.3 (+17.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -3.2 (+17.8) | 153.2 (-6.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -3.0 (+18.0) | 149.8 (-2.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -3.9 (+17.1) | 151.3 (-4.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -3.6 (+17.4) | 152.5 (-5.5) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | AKR 79 – 76 TOL |
| Jan 28, 2026 | AKR 91 – 81 TOL |
| Mar 14, 2025 | AKR 100 – 90 TOL |
| Mar 5, 2025 | AKR 96 – 87 TOL |
| Jan 15, 2025 | AKR 85 – 78 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-1 | 15-1 |
| Away | 10-4 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.9 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#98) | 5.2 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#83) | 0.76 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#99) | 0.73 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#68) | 0.546 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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