Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | AF -150 FRES +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +5 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | AF -4.2 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.7 (+23.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -2.5 (-7.5) | 129.3 (+13.7) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -1.8 (-6.8) | 128.0 (+15.0) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -2.3 (-7.3) | 130.0 (+13.0) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AF -2.4 (-7.4) | 128.6 (+14.4) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | FRES 93 – 63 AF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | FRES 79 – 62 AF |
| Feb 22, 2025 | AF 72 – 69 FRES |
| Jan 18, 2025 | FRES 74 – 65 AF |
| Feb 10, 2024 | FRES 68 – 66 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-9 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#146) | 0.5 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#159) | -0.22 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#160) | -0.03 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#237) | 0.489 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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