Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -333 PROV +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +18 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -9.4 (+8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -8.9 (+9.1) | 146.3 (+9.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -7.8 (+10.2) | 143.5 (+12.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -8.5 (+9.5) | 147.0 (+9.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -8.6 (+9.4) | 147.9 (+8.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | CONN 87 – 81 PROV |
| Jan 8, 2026 | CONN 103 – 98 PROV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CONN 75 – 63 PROV |
| Jan 5, 2025 | CONN 87 – 84 PROV |
| Mar 10, 2024 | CONN 74 – 60 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-8 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W6 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 17.7 (#5) | 11.9 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.35 (#19) | 2.13 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.34 (#11) | 2.83 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#36) | 0.578 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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