Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA -450 CHSO +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +18 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -11.4 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -9.9 (+8.1) | 147.3 (-5.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -10.3 (+7.7) | 145.1 (-3.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -10.9 (+7.1) | 147.4 (-5.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -10.9 (+7.1) | 146.8 (-4.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CHSO 92 – 75 UNCA |
| Jan 3, 2026 | CHSO 86 – 83 UNCA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | UNCA 80 – 60 CHSO |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNCA 75 – 72 CHSO |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNCA 69 – 61 CHSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-0 | 6-8 |
| Away | 10-6 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#161) | -7.5 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#112) | -1.83 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#120) | -2.00 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#90) | 0.411 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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