I had 'em all out there steppin' and fetchin' like their heads were on fire and their asses was catchin'. "The Ballad of Uneasy Rider" - Charlie Daniels
Patriot League · Christl Arena · February 22, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread ARMY -2.5 Away covered
O/U 137.5 Over
Money ARMY -138 / BU +140
Model Predictions
Spread Total ARMY win
Actual BU +6 140 Lost
Massey ARMY -5.3 (-11.3) — —
Massey Totals — 141.5 (-1.5) —
Bradley-Terry — — 68% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 74% ✗
Baseline Plus ML ARMY -3.7 (-9.7) 139.6 (+0.4) 63% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ ARMY -1.4 (-7.4) 136.7 (+3.3) 53% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML ARMY -4.0 (-10.0) 139.0 (+1.0) 66% ✗
Baseline ML ARMY -3.7 (-9.7) 139.8 (+0.2) 66% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 11, 2026 BU 85 – 68 ARMY
Jan 10, 2026 BU 100 – 91 ARMY
Jan 18, 2025 ARMY 68 – 62 BU
Jan 5, 2025 BU 71 – 63 ARMY
Feb 14, 2024 ARMY 65 – 50 BU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ARMY BU
Overall 17-16 15-17
Conference 10-8 8-10
Home 10-5 9-4
Away 7-8 6-11
Neutral 0-3 0-2
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 71.4 66.2
Avg Pts Against 71.0 67.7
Massey -4.0 (#239) -5.7 (#267)
Bradley-Terry -1.01 (#271) -1.16 (#284)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.18 (#263) -1.51 (#287)
RPI 0.455 (#265) 0.453 (#269)
Shooting & Four Factors ARMY BU
FG% 47.5% 41.2%
3PT% 35.6% 32.5%
REB / G 33.1 35.2
OREB / G 8.0 10.5
AST / TO 0.94 0.82
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.1% 47.5%
TOV% 19.7% 18.5%
ORB% 26.2% 29.5%
FT Rate 21.9% 22.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.4% 51.2%
Opp TOV% 16.2% 18.6%
DRB% 75.2% 75.0%
Opp FT Rate 20.4% 24.9%

Game Analysis

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