Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC +110 UML -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +5 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | UML -2.2 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -2.2 (-2.8) | 148.3 (-3.3) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -2.6 (-2.4) | 145.0 (+0.0) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -2.6 (-2.4) | 150.4 (-5.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -3.2 (-1.8) | 152.7 (-7.7) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | UMBC 91 – 69 UML |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UMBC 84 – 60 UML |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UMBC 79 – 56 UML |
| Feb 20, 2025 | UML 98 – 79 UMBC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UML 83 – 67 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 11-5 |
| Home | 13-4 | 17-0 |
| Away | 5-10 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#229) | 2.1 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#223) | 0.31 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#236) | 0.36 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#224) | 0.524 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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