Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | NEV -500 SJSU +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +15 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -10.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (-17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -9.6 (+5.4) | 136.8 (-19.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -8.3 (+6.7) | 135.0 (-18.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -9.5 (+5.5) | 138.7 (-21.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -9.7 (+5.3) | 139.9 (-22.9) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | SJSU 87 – 71 NEV |
| Jan 21, 2026 | NEV 87 – 54 SJSU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NEV 73 – 58 SJSU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | NEV 75 – 64 SJSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | NEV 84 – 63 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#45) | 3.5 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#21) | 1.10 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#32) | 1.35 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.619 (#13) | 0.549 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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