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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
25–7 on winners
spread MAE 9.1
32 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Abilene Christian
@
Texas Tech
|
+12.2 | 127.9 | 87% | 44–51 | ✓ |
Cal State Bakersfield
@
Arizona
|
+13.1 | 128.7 | 88% | 60–85 | ✓ |
North Carolina A&T
@
VCU
|
+24.3 | 135.3 | 99% | 59–95 | ✓ |
Stony Brook
@
Hofstra
|
+12.3 | 135.2 | 87% | 67–72 | ✓ |
SIU Edwardsville
@
Valparaiso
|
+8.4 | 133.2 | 78% | 58–80 | ✓ |
Marshall
@
Charleston
|
-9.0 | 138.4 | 21% | 84–72 | ✓ |
Eastern Illinois
@
Evansville
|
+1.9 | 142.4 | 57% | 65–68 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Arkansas State
|
+20.6 | 144.8 | 97% | 75–74 | ✗ |
Lamar
@
UL Monroe
|
+17.3 | 140.6 | 94% | 63–60 | ✗ |
Chattanooga
@
Bellarmine
|
+0.8 | 135.5 | 53% | 77–68 | ✗ |
Indiana
@
Florida State
|
+1.4 | 138.3 | 55% | 67–69 | ✓ |
Georgia Tech
@
Nebraska
|
+12.1 | 173.8 | 86% | 75–64 | ✗ |
SE Louisiana
@
Louisiana Tech
|
+13.5 | 136.2 | 89% | 69–78 | ✓ |
Stephen F. Austin
@
Baylor
|
+33.9 | 161.9 | 100% | 52–83 | ✓ |
Texas State
@
Texas
|
+18.3 | 131.8 | 95% | 53–74 | ✓ |
Southern
@
Arkansas
|
+28.4 | 154.5 | 100% | 44–79 | ✓ |
Southern Utah
@
Utah Valley
|
+0.4 | 156.7 | 52% | 81–71 | ✗ |
Southern Miss
@
Tulane
|
+6.9 | 122.1 | 73% | 38–58 | ✓ |
Southeast Missouri State
@
Lipscomb
|
+5.9 | 151.9 | 70% | 74–80 | ✓ |
Oklahoma
@
Xavier
|
+6.9 | 164.7 | 74% | 77–99 | ✓ |
Liberty
@
Missouri
|
+14.0 | 144.4 | 90% | 60–69 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Cal Poly
|
-4.7 | 126.3 | 33% | 76–69 | ✓ |
California
@
Pepperdine
|
+14.8 | 139.5 | 91% | 62–74 | ✓ |
Idaho
@
Washington State
|
+9.7 | 122.5 | 81% | 58–61 | ✓ |
Boise State
@
BYU
|
-2.2 | 131.6 | 42% | 74–70 | ✓ |
Denver
@
Wyoming
|
+17.4 | 158.7 | 94% | 61–83 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
Northwestern
|
+18.3 | 163.9 | 95% | 71–70 | ✗ |
Florida A&M
@
Oregon
|
+18.0 | 143.3 | 95% | 66–87 | ✓ |
Seattle U
@
Washington
|
-2.0 | 121.7 | 43% | 41–73 | ✗ |
LSU New Orleans
@
Jacksonville
|
+14.6 | 140.6 | 91% | 70–77 | ✓ |
North Florida
@
East Carolina
|
+22.1 | 145.4 | 98% | 67–73 | ✓ |
North Dakota
@
South Dakota
|
-1.9 | 141.2 | 43% | 75–71 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.