← All models
Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–4 on winners
spread MAE 9.8
12 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UNC Greensboro
@
Coppin State
|
+2.1 | 139.7 | 57% | 80–86 | ✓ |
Portland
@
Oregon State
|
+12.1 | 153.9 | 87% | 87–86 | ✗ |
Kansas City
@
Minnesota
|
+14.8 | 136.6 | 91% | 61–90 | ✓ |
UC Riverside
@
Northern Arizona
|
-15.7 | 135.3 | 8% | 74–50 | ✓ |
UT Rio Grande Valley
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
+3.1 | 135.7 | 61% | 68–64 | ✗ |
Long Beach State
@
San Francisco
|
+23.2 | 151.7 | 98% | 62–107 | ✓ |
North Dakota State
@
South Dakota State
|
+9.7 | 135.3 | 81% | 75–77 | ✓ |
San Diego State
@
Arizona State
|
+6.5 | 142.7 | 72% | 80–68 | ✗ |
North Texas
@
West Virginia
|
+10.9 | 143.3 | 84% | 50–62 | ✓ |
St. John's
@
Seton Hall
|
+18.2 | 161.0 | 95% | 68–77 | ✓ |
App State
@
Charlotte
|
+5.0 | 123.8 | 67% | 61–57 | ✗ |
South Dakota State
@
North Dakota
|
-8.7 | 154.0 | 22% | 74–62 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.