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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
17–12 on winners
spread MAE 10.4
29 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+4.4 | 148.4 | 69% | 85–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.9 | 133.4 | 69% | 67–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.2 | 138.2 | 60% | 80–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.4 | 140.9 | 61% | 83–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.9 | 154.4 | 41% | 97–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.9 | 138.9 | 72% | 55–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.2 | 143.9 | 56% | 78–86 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.4 | 148.3 | 43% | 67–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.7 | 152.4 | 87% | 76–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.3 | 151.6 | 76% | 61–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 137.3 | 41% | 68–59 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.2 | 138.9 | 86% | 61–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 146.1 | 71% | 71–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 138.9 | 61% | 85–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.7 | 139.1 | 85% | 70–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 134.7 | 40% | 73–53 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.8 | 151.9 | 84% | 61–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 137.6 | 74% | 68–84 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.3 | 140.1 | 35% | 91–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.6 | 139.4 | 42% | 63–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.4 | 126.4 | 75% | 45–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.3 | 142.8 | 50% | 80–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.2 | 145.9 | 88% | 76–94 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.8 | 124.3 | 43% | 63–65 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.1 | 141.1 | 51% | 55–65 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.8 | 129.1 | 24% | 83–48 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.7 | 145.9 | 75% | 59–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.0 | 146.2 | 90% | 62–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.8 | 143.0 | 82% | 60–51 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.