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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
10–12 on winners
spread MAE 11.1
22 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+5.1 | 142.1 | 76% | 70–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 140.4 | 64% | 84–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-10.7 | 137.9 | 19% | 80–53 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.3 | 130.5 | 51% | 78–65 | ✗ |
|
|
-13.0 | 150.3 | 13% | 106–54 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 135.8 | 52% | 68–54 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.0 | 132.2 | 85% | 69–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 140.6 | 57% | 72–62 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.3 | 135.9 | 41% | 58–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.4 | 125.8 | 53% | 61–63 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.7 | 135.5 | 20% | 70–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.9 | 151.2 | 83% | 86–95 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.9 | 144.1 | 75% | 77–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.3 | 132.2 | 42% | 67–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.5 | 132.8 | 46% | 70–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.5 | 151.5 | 78% | 93–102 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.6 | 140.0 | 50% | 64–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.8 | 144.3 | 82% | 68–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 134.6 | 53% | 62–57 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.4 | 161.5 | 68% | 69–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 148.7 | 62% | 88–59 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.2 | 127.5 | 70% | 69–56 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.