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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
25–5 on winners
spread MAE 9.1
30 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Clemson
@
Boston College
|
-5.5 | 139.4 | 27% | 54–62 | ✗ |
Virginia Tech
@
Miami
|
+4.2 | 148.5 | 70% | 83–92 | ✓ |
Wake Forest
@
Duke
|
+8.9 | 147.8 | 81% | 73–75 | ✓ |
Marist
@
Quinnipiac
|
+11.5 | 135.1 | 87% | 66–72 | ✓ |
Nebraska
@
Illinois
|
+10.8 | 135.9 | 87% | 56–72 | ✓ |
Texas A&M
@
Arkansas
|
+5.2 | 140.9 | 69% | 70–81 | ✓ |
VCU
@
Davidson
|
-2.6 | 135.1 | 39% | 61–59 | ✓ |
Saint Louis
@
Fordham
|
-0.1 | 145.5 | 51% | 65–75 | ✗ |
Ohio
@
Eastern Michigan
|
-8.0 | 157.9 | 23% | 79–90 | ✗ |
Central Michigan
@
Kent State
|
+16.0 | 140.7 | 90% | 69–81 | ✓ |
Toledo
@
Miami (OH)
|
-8.8 | 160.0 | 18% | 81–78 | ✓ |
Ball State
@
Bowling Green
|
-2.1 | 150.5 | 44% | 69–60 | ✓ |
Akron
@
Buffalo
|
-0.2 | 147.5 | 49% | 81–64 | ✓ |
Northern Illinois
@
Western Michigan
|
+1.4 | 148.2 | 59% | 73–59 | ✗ |
Kansas State
@
Kansas
|
+5.0 | 147.5 | 71% | 78–90 | ✓ |
UConn
@
DePaul
|
-12.0 | 149.7 | 16% | 90–76 | ✓ |
Vanderbilt
@
Alabama
|
+13.9 | 157.0 | 88% | 44–101 | ✓ |
West Virginia
@
TCU
|
+5.8 | 146.1 | 75% | 72–76 | ✓ |
Indiana
@
Maryland
|
+1.6 | 137.4 | 54% | 55–66 | ✓ |
Northwestern
@
Iowa
|
+3.7 | 148.7 | 68% | 70–86 | ✓ |
Kentucky
@
Ole Miss
|
-2.2 | 136.7 | 41% | 75–66 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Dayton
|
+13.4 | 133.4 | 87% | 81–85 | ✓ |
UNLV
@
Colorado State
|
+0.8 | 147.7 | 52% | 83–71 | ✗ |
Boise State
@
Air Force
|
-7.1 | 133.5 | 23% | 59–52 | ✓ |
Fresno State
@
Wyoming
|
+1.5 | 131.1 | 58% | 62–85 | ✓ |
San Diego State
@
Nevada
|
+2.0 | 142.8 | 57% | 66–75 | ✓ |
UAlbany
@
UMass Lowell
|
+11.5 | 146.7 | 87% | 50–66 | ✓ |
Penn State
@
Purdue
|
+10.4 | 135.8 | 83% | 60–80 | ✓ |
Providence
@
Xavier
|
+3.4 | 156.3 | 69% | 83–85 | ✓ |
Creighton
@
Georgetown
|
-13.5 | 150.8 | 15% | 63–53 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.