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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
10–6 on winners
spread MAE 7.6
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Virginia
@
Syracuse
|
-3.8 | 136.5 | 30% | 67–62 | ✓ |
Chicago State
@
The Citadel
|
+1.8 | 137.6 | 55% | 76–75 | ✗ |
Loyola Maryland
@
Colgate
|
+13.6 | 139.6 | 88% | 63–76 | ✓ |
North Carolina Central
@
Norfolk State
|
+3.4 | 142.9 | 68% | 71–77 | ✓ |
South Carolina State
@
Howard
|
+10.8 | 154.9 | 86% | 74–100 | ✓ |
Maryland Eastern Shore
@
Morgan State
|
+0.7 | 142.4 | 55% | 72–58 | ✗ |
Alabama A&M
@
Bethune-Cookman
|
+0.5 | 140.5 | 50% | 77–88 | ✓ |
Delaware State
@
Coppin State
|
+4.4 | 151.2 | 66% | 71–66 | ✗ |
South Dakota State
@
Kansas City
|
-0.4 | 130.9 | 48% | 67–66 | ✓ |
South Dakota
@
Oral Roberts
|
+16.6 | 153.5 | 90% | 53–103 | ✓ |
Alcorn State
@
Grambling
|
+5.1 | 138.5 | 72% | 63–60 | ✗ |
Baylor
@
Texas
|
+5.2 | 151.1 | 70% | 71–76 | ✓ |
Iowa State
@
Texas Tech
|
-1.5 | 132.6 | 42% | 77–80 | ✗ |
Jackson State
@
Southern
|
+9.8 | 144.9 | 84% | 62–73 | ✓ |
Alabama State
@
Florida A&M
|
-1.8 | 127.8 | 37% | 58–69 | ✗ |
Mississippi State
@
South Carolina
|
-11.2 | 132.1 | 15% | 66–51 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.