You scumbag, you maggot, you cheap lousy faggot "Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–16 on winners spread MAE 9.3 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Youngstown State @ Stephen F. Austin +4.6 127.2 63% 57–64 ✓
New Mexico State @ UNLV +12.1 143.6 83% 65–72 ✓
Stony Brook @ Columbia +17.6 149.9 88% 63–82 ✓
Kent State @ Cleveland State +3.1 134.7 60% 68–52 ✗
Rider @ Bucknell +7.0 146.9 70% 57–53 ✗
Cal Poly @ Saint Mary's +8.7 155.0 80% 66–80 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Northern Colorado +18.8 155.1 89% 98–114 ✓
Eastern Washington @ California Baptist +4.6 152.7 71% 68–79 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ BYU +38.9 144.5 91% 43–87 ✓
Stanford @ Santa Clara -0.7 149.1 39% 71–69 ✓
Portland @ Princeton +5.1 142.8 69% 67–94 ✓
St. John's @ Georgia -1.3 150.1 44% 63–66 ✗
Hampton @ Boise State +17.4 139.3 90% 69–83 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Northeastern +7.1 138.4 75% 68–60 ✗
American University @ UAlbany +3.7 131.6 61% 81–77 ✗
Holy Cross @ Maine +4.4 141.2 68% 55–80 ✓
Boston University @ Howard +5.2 137.5 61% 69–62 ✗
Omaha @ Lamar -1.7 145.6 38% 65–59 ✓
Wofford @ Portland State -1.9 150.0 47% 74–79 ✗
Charleston @ Rhode Island +10.0 161.7 79% 53–91 ✓
Miami @ VCU +1.8 146.0 56% 70–77 ✓
Rutgers @ Kennesaw State +4.8 156.0 61% 77–79 ✓
South Florida @ Wright State +4.5 148.6 65% 73–72 ✗
William & Mary @ App State -2.1 142.4 44% 76–79 ✗
Vermont @ Fairfield -2.9 128.4 39% 66–67 ✗
Binghamton @ Central Connecticut +12.6 132.3 84% 56–64 ✓
Villanova @ Maryland +14.2 146.1 86% 75–76 ✓
South Dakota State @ Duquesne -5.9 146.9 26% 71–60 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Valparaiso +4.5 145.1 70% 53–81 ✓
Bryant @ St. Bonaventure +12.7 147.2 79% 70–85 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Central Arkansas -3.8 142.0 41% 83–92 ✗
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Milwaukee +1.2 149.2 58% 65–69 ✓
LSU @ UCF -2.5 142.3 35% 109–102 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Nevada +4.7 139.7 69% 78–90 ✓
Florida International @ Florida Gulf Coast +5.8 131.9 75% 59–60 ✓
Alabama State @ Akron +3.7 151.4 68% 78–97 ✓
North Alabama @ Northwestern State -1.0 147.9 47% 58–71 ✗
Florida State @ Massachusetts -2.5 148.7 36% 92–59 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Utah Tech -12.5 145.5 15% 89–79 ✓
Towson @ Morgan State -0.0 140.1 48% 64–60 ✓
Campbell @ Evansville +3.0 143.4 58% 53–66 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Air Force +2.9 127.5 55% 48–82 ✓
Sacramento State @ California +11.1 136.1 74% 77–83 ✓
Alcorn State @ UC Riverside +16.6 140.8 90% 52–69 ✓
Idaho @ San Diego +3.1 144.5 57% 61–68 ✓
Missouri State @ High Point +2.9 147.2 62% 71–61 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Missouri +40.3 153.5 91% 63–112 ✓
Queens University @ East Tennessee State +7.4 142.2 79% 67–82 ✓
Jackson State @ Lipscomb +13.2 147.4 87% 53–77 ✓
Longwood @ McNeese +1.7 134.7 56% 69–84 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Bradley +2.5 150.3 63% 69–80 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Seton Hall -4.4 135.5 30% 61–63 ✗
Yale @ Delaware -8.4 151.1 23% 94–100 ✗
Wisconsin @ Pittsburgh +6.8 150.5 69% 81–75 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.