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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
19–11 on winners
spread MAE 8.6
30 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+7.9 | 139.5 | 81% | 69–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 145.9 | 55% | 73–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.4 | 141.7 | 88% | 52–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.7 | 136.1 | 28% | 67–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 147.3 | 58% | 65–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.7 | 154.7 | 89% | 68–99 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.9 | 150.6 | 85% | 59–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 141.6 | 31% | 81–70 | ✗ |
|
|
-11.0 | 141.6 | 18% | 63–48 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.9 | 131.2 | 37% | 64–59 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.0 | 146.8 | 51% | 58–70 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.1 | 139.9 | 33% | 61–63 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.0 | 144.4 | 42% | 77–95 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.6 | 150.4 | 25% | 98–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 145.6 | 66% | 81–87 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.3 | 151.1 | 30% | 83–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 145.7 | 59% | 99–97 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.2 | 147.4 | 56% | 64–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.5 | 143.5 | 77% | 79–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 148.0 | 48% | 88–83 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.1 | 145.6 | 71% | 90–89 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.9 | 148.4 | 81% | 60–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-13.0 | 155.7 | 15% | 85–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.5 | 141.6 | 17% | 73–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 140.6 | 56% | 64–80 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.2 | 145.1 | 51% | 56–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.1 | 136.6 | 78% | 74–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.9 | 140.0 | 22% | 75–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.2 | 146.4 | 70% | 65–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.4 | 141.3 | 50% | 70–55 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.