They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–13 on winners spread MAE 9.5 52 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Tennessee State @ Chattanooga +9.2 148.8 77% 78–85 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Stonehill +7.2 133.9 78% 65–67 ✓
New Hampshire @ Columbia +19.5 140.8 89% 57–83 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Buffalo +1.4 155.2 62% 81–82 ✓
Green Bay @ Ohio State +26.0 153.1 91% 69–102 ✓
Cornell @ Iona +2.6 148.5 58% 84–68 ✗
Missouri State @ Boston College -0.2 142.8 58% 74–76 ✗
Le Moyne @ UT Rio Grande Valley +13.8 147.8 87% 77–97 ✓
Utah Tech @ Montana +9.0 146.3 76% 66–69 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Arkansas +26.4 142.0 91% 35–109 ✓
Indiana State @ Southern Indiana +4.9 151.3 72% 77–87 ✓
Oregon State @ North Texas +4.2 130.7 69% 55–58 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Saint Louis +2.7 142.7 63% 67–81 ✓
UTSA @ Troy +14.5 143.3 87% 72–86 ✓
Incarnate Word @ South Alabama +6.2 137.6 71% 63–84 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Houston Christian -0.0 128.8 43% 74–73 ✓
Central Michigan @ Minnesota +2.5 126.3 51% 65–68 ✓
McNeese @ Liberty +3.2 133.0 58% 58–62 ✓
Xavier @ South Carolina -0.5 146.6 47% 75–66 ✓
UTEP @ San José State -3.8 134.9 46% 65–71 ✗
Auburn @ Iowa State -5.3 140.7 26% 83–81 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Southern Miss -2.6 144.1 39% 82–74 ✓
Norfolk State @ UC Davis +6.3 143.6 72% 76–55 ✗
Little Rock @ Illinois +18.3 145.7 87% 34–92 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Long Beach State -8.8 132.7 22% 71–48 ✓
Dayton @ North Carolina +8.6 153.3 71% 90–92 ✓
Drexel @ Chicago State -14.2 135.4 14% 83–71 ✓
Jacksonville @ Siena -3.7 142.4 37% 75–64 ✓
Duquesne @ Old Dominion -5.7 135.3 22% 67–54 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Southern Illinois -1.5 145.1 41% 77–72 ✓
Tulsa @ Detroit Mercy +2.0 147.0 58% 63–44 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Gardner-Webb +5.4 138.0 73% 69–73 ✓
San Francisco @ Fordham -6.6 136.5 21% 85–64 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Mercer -2.5 150.8 35% 75–72 ✓
Hampton @ High Point +2.4 130.7 61% 73–76 ✓
Creighton @ San Diego State -1.3 141.1 37% 53–71 ✗
Georgia State @ Austin Peay +2.5 144.5 59% 50–62 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Richmond -7.9 140.7 27% 65–62 ✓
North Dakota @ Bethune-Cookman -1.1 136.3 48% 67–79 ✗
UConn @ Colorado -4.7 145.4 28% 72–73 ✗
Clemson @ Penn State +2.8 150.1 57% 75–67 ✗
Denver @ Utah Tech -1.9 143.5 38% 54–68 ✗
Bryant @ Tennessee State -6.5 155.2 24% 97–85 ✓
West Georgia @ Utah Valley +18.2 141.5 90% 74–77 ✓
Texas A&M @ Oregon -1.5 142.0 49% 70–80 ✗
South Dakota State @ Missouri State -1.2 150.8 45% 75–55 ✓
UT Arlington @ Murray State +9.2 148.6 83% 66–79 ✓
Memphis @ Michigan State -1.2 148.8 47% 71–63 ✓
NJIT @ Cleveland State +13.2 129.9 88% 53–56 ✓
Wyoming @ Tulane +4.9 142.6 73% 64–63 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Kentucky +26.8 155.3 90% 68–87 ✓
Radford @ Purdue Fort Wayne +5.7 150.2 69% 69–56 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.