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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
20–11 on winners
spread MAE 10.5
31 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-1.9 | 139.6 | 38% | 65–85 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.0 | 141.0 | 80% | 83–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.7 | 143.8 | 66% | 86–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.6 | 145.6 | 73% | 49–60 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.5 | 131.8 | 33% | 52–61 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.7 | 138.2 | 58% | 65–47 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.0 | 146.3 | 74% | 48–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.8 | 153.1 | 87% | 63–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 143.4 | 69% | 77–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.8 | 145.5 | 87% | 81–80 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.6 | 155.2 | 31% | 83–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.5 | 131.2 | 83% | 46–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 138.3 | 70% | 63–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 145.5 | 66% | 95–91 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.7 | 146.9 | 43% | 69–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.1 | 154.1 | 85% | 68–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 134.5 | 62% | 67–45 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.4 | 145.2 | 88% | 80–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.8 | 147.4 | 18% | 88–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.2 | 143.4 | 81% | 72–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 155.8 | 66% | 66–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.4 | 142.0 | 86% | 53–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.2 | 144.0 | 30% | 70–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.7 | 141.1 | 49% | 68–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 131.0 | 65% | 70–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.1 | 133.5 | 70% | 67–64 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.7 | 137.7 | 32% | 74–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.4 | 149.5 | 90% | 67–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.8 | 156.2 | 90% | 73–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.0 | 142.2 | 60% | 84–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.1 | 140.2 | 74% | 53–66 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.