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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
22–14 on winners
spread MAE 7.5
36 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Southern
|
+2.0 | 154.4 | 65% | 81–84 | ✓ |
Southern Utah
@
UT Arlington
|
+7.0 | 135.7 | 75% | 63–69 | ✓ |
Kennesaw State
@
Western Kentucky
|
+3.4 | 156.6 | 60% | 96–87 | ✗ |
Colorado State
@
San Diego State
|
+3.8 | 140.4 | 64% | 62–71 | ✓ |
UC San Diego
@
Cal State Northridge
|
-2.8 | 149.5 | 35% | 70–80 | ✗ |
Rutgers
@
UCLA
|
+12.3 | 143.0 | 84% | 59–72 | ✓ |
Maryland Eastern Shore
@
North Carolina Central
|
-1.7 | 131.2 | 40% | 76–83 | ✗ |
Clemson
@
North Carolina
|
+3.0 | 135.8 | 63% | 80–79 | ✗ |
Georgetown
@
Villanova
|
+9.0 | 141.9 | 81% | 78–64 | ✗ |
Florida Atlantic
@
North Texas
|
-1.1 | 135.6 | 43% | 70–74 | ✗ |
TCU
@
Kansas
|
+4.3 | 142.6 | 69% | 73–78 | ✓ |
Oklahoma
@
Texas A&M
|
+0.8 | 161.0 | 54% | 83–63 | ✗ |
Abilene Christian
@
Utah Tech
|
+2.9 | 141.7 | 61% | 74–80 | ✓ |
UC Davis
@
Cal State Fullerton
|
-1.0 | 154.1 | 44% | 70–82 | ✗ |
San José State
@
New Mexico
|
+13.7 | 147.5 | 88% | 77–93 | ✓ |
George Washington
@
Saint Louis
|
+9.0 | 155.7 | 81% | 81–88 | ✓ |
Ohio State
@
Michigan
|
+13.5 | 157.7 | 88% | 67–71 | ✓ |
Missouri State
@
Louisiana Tech
|
+0.4 | 135.1 | 59% | 66–69 | ✓ |
Kentucky
@
Florida
|
+10.4 | 155.2 | 83% | 63–71 | ✓ |
Charlotte
@
UAB
|
+4.1 | 145.7 | 74% | 83–78 | ✗ |
Prairie View A&M
@
Alabama A&M
|
-0.2 | 147.5 | 46% | 74–55 | ✓ |
St. Bonaventure
@
Dayton
|
+6.1 | 140.8 | 76% | 63–68 | ✓ |
Wisconsin
@
Illinois
|
+7.7 | 157.8 | 76% | 91–88 | ✗ |
Kennesaw State
@
Sam Houston
|
+4.5 | 157.8 | 72% | 79–73 | ✗ |
North Texas
@
Tulsa
|
+9.4 | 137.8 | 78% | 84–90 | ✓ |
Tennessee
@
Vanderbilt
|
+0.8 | 150.6 | 54% | 68–75 | ✓ |
Massachusetts
@
Toledo
|
+3.3 | 154.9 | 65% | 67–77 | ✓ |
Duquesne
@
VCU
|
+10.2 | 149.2 | 85% | 66–71 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
St. John's
|
+9.9 | 135.1 | 84% | 68–78 | ✓ |
South Carolina State
@
Howard
|
+15.9 | 142.8 | 90% | 61–78 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
Nebraska
|
+0.5 | 140.9 | 52% | 74–58 | ✗ |
Iowa State
@
Arizona
|
+5.1 | 143.3 | 70% | 80–82 | ✓ |
Miami
@
Virginia
|
+3.2 | 144.0 | 65% | 62–84 | ✓ |
Ole Miss
@
Alabama
|
+11.7 | 165.0 | 83% | 80–79 | ✗ |
Kent State
@
Akron
|
+8.9 | 162.4 | 82% | 68–75 | ✓ |
Davidson
@
Saint Joseph's
|
-0.7 | 130.5 | 54% | 58–70 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.