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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
19–15 on winners
spread MAE 9.7
34 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oregon
@
Arizona
|
+13.6 | 160.9 | 89% | 67–59 | ✗ |
Delaware State
@
North Carolina Central
|
+3.8 | 143.0 | 64% | 71–58 | ✗ |
Providence
@
Marquette
|
+6.7 | 144.3 | 73% | 68–79 | ✓ |
Long Beach State
@
UC Irvine
|
+9.1 | 154.3 | 79% | 83–79 | ✗ |
Seattle U
@
Grand Canyon
|
+6.1 | 141.3 | 71% | 72–80 | ✓ |
Indiana
@
Nebraska
|
+6.0 | 147.2 | 71% | 66–93 | ✓ |
Marist
@
Fairfield
|
+2.2 | 133.8 | 58% | 61–65 | ✓ |
Baylor
@
Iowa State
|
+1.1 | 144.9 | 54% | 62–76 | ✓ |
Florida
@
Alabama
|
+6.9 | 183.8 | 74% | 102–88 | ✗ |
Alabama A&M
@
Texas Southern
|
+5.4 | 139.0 | 69% | 65–72 | ✓ |
NC State
@
Virginia
|
+1.0 | 125.1 | 53% | 73–65 | ✗ |
San Diego State
@
Utah State
|
-2.5 | 146.1 | 41% | 86–70 | ✓ |
Temple
@
Charlotte
|
+5.5 | 133.8 | 69% | 58–54 | ✗ |
Colorado
@
Washington State
|
-1.2 | 144.7 | 46% | 58–52 | ✓ |
UT Arlington
@
Tarleton State
|
-1.4 | 148.6 | 45% | 87–84 | ✓ |
Hawai'i
@
UC Davis
|
-0.3 | 136.4 | 49% | 65–68 | ✗ |
Colorado State
@
New Mexico
|
+1.3 | 153.3 | 55% | 61–74 | ✓ |
UMass Lowell
@
Vermont
|
+6.6 | 138.3 | 73% | 61–66 | ✓ |
Brown
@
Princeton
|
+11.7 | 143.0 | 86% | 90–81 | ✗ |
Wisconsin
@
Purdue
|
+6.9 | 150.9 | 73% | 76–75 | ✗ |
Mississippi State
@
Auburn
|
+7.8 | 146.1 | 76% | 66–73 | ✓ |
Delaware State
@
Howard
|
+2.2 | 148.2 | 58% | 67–70 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
VCU
|
+1.1 | 141.8 | 54% | 60–66 | ✓ |
Cornell
@
Yale
|
+1.1 | 155.1 | 54% | 57–69 | ✓ |
UAB
@
South Florida
|
+3.4 | 149.5 | 62% | 93–83 | ✗ |
St. Bonaventure
@
Duquesne
|
-0.5 | 137.2 | 48% | 60–70 | ✗ |
Texas A&M
@
Florida
|
+1.2 | 157.8 | 54% | 90–95 | ✓ |
Nebraska
@
Illinois
|
+4.7 | 159.4 | 67% | 87–98 | ✓ |
Temple
@
Florida Atlantic
|
+14.9 | 152.7 | 91% | 74–73 | ✗ |
|
New Mexico
@
San Diego State
|
+0.5 | 150.4 | 52% | 68–61 | ✗ |
Iowa State
@
Houston
|
+6.2 | 125.4 | 71% | 69–41 | ✗ |
Marquette
@
UConn
|
+5.2 | 149.0 | 68% | 57–73 | ✓ |
Saint Peter's
@
Fairfield
|
+1.7 | 133.9 | 56% | 68–63 | ✗ |
Kent State
@
Akron
|
+3.6 | 139.7 | 63% | 61–62 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.