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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
7–4 on winners
spread MAE 8.7
11 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NC State
@
North Carolina
|
+9.9 | 154.2 | 82% | 84–76 | ✗ |
UTEP
@
Western Kentucky
|
+3.2 | 149.0 | 62% | 71–78 | ✓ |
Oregon
@
Colorado
|
+4.1 | 149.6 | 65% | 75–68 | ✗ |
Texas Southern
@
Grambling
|
-1.5 | 130.0 | 45% | 66–75 | ✗ |
Long Beach State
@
UC Davis
|
-0.0 | 149.7 | 50% | 74–70 | ✓ |
UT Arlington
@
Grand Canyon
|
+7.1 | 152.0 | 74% | 74–89 | ✓ |
Brown
@
Yale
|
+8.7 | 141.5 | 79% | 61–62 | ✓ |
Florida
@
Auburn
|
+7.8 | 166.4 | 76% | 67–86 | ✓ |
Duquesne
@
VCU
|
+1.2 | 131.8 | 54% | 57–51 | ✗ |
Temple
@
UAB
|
+5.2 | 149.5 | 68% | 69–85 | ✓ |
Wisconsin
@
Illinois
|
+2.0 | 157.5 | 57% | 87–93 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.