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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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21–7 on winners spread MAE 8.6 28 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
North Carolina @ Syracuse	-7.6	152.4	30%	79–86	✗
Iowa State @ Cincinnati	-0.7	135.9	47%	68–59	✓
Michigan @ Illinois	+12.3	158.2	87%	68–97	✓
Duquesne @ Dayton	+10.5	136.3	83%	59–75	✓
Pittsburgh @ Virginia	+3.2	120.7	61%	74–63	✗
Illinois State @ Indiana State	+16.7	142.1	88%	80–67	✗
St. John's @ Providence	+1.7	147.3	61%	72–75	✓
Texas A&M @ Vanderbilt	-10.4	134.9	19%	73–74	✗
George Washington @ George Mason	+9.0	150.6	83%	67–90	✓
La Salle @ Davidson	+8.8	141.9	83%	56–71	✓
Drake @ Evansville	-9.2	143.5	19%	78–75	✓
LSU @ Florida	+9.4	162.6	82%	80–82	✓
Buffalo @ Northern Illinois	+6.6	149.3	80%	68–72	✓
Georgetown @ Creighton	+18.7	156.6	90%	72–94	✓
Tennessee State @ Tennessee Tech	-4.1	136.1	34%	50–70	✗
Oklahoma @ Baylor	+6.9	146.3	79%	62–79	✓
UCF @ BYU	+10.6	140.8	85%	88–90	✓
Ohio State @ Wisconsin	+7.6	140.0	80%	54–62	✓
Ole Miss @ Kentucky	+7.2	158.4	73%	63–75	✓
Louisville @ Boston College	+9.6	148.7	83%	77–89	✓
Florida State @ Virginia Tech	+6.4	149.3	74%	75–83	✓
Colorado State @ San Diego State	+5.4	137.6	77%	55–71	✓
Air Force @ San José State	+3.9	133.1	70%	66–73	✓
New Mexico @ Nevada	+1.2	149.8	58%	83–82	✗
Boston University @ Army	-1.5	125.4	37%	50–65	✗
Presbyterian @ UNC Asheville	+10.7	148.7	86%	69–71	✓
Michigan State @ Penn State	-2.7	139.1	43%	80–72	✓
Robert Morris @ Youngstown State	+11.3	150.6	86%	77–87	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.