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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
22–9 on winners
spread MAE 9.0
31 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
@
Tulane
|
+1.3 | 154.4 | 58% | 94–101 | ✓ |
Chicago State
@
Delaware State
|
-2.8 | 138.5 | 35% | 60–66 | ✗ |
North Carolina
@
Wake Forest
|
+0.5 | 153.4 | 52% | 85–92 | ✓ |
Louisville
@
Pittsburgh
|
+15.8 | 139.6 | 89% | 57–91 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Texas A&M
|
+2.1 | 141.3 | 60% | 78–83 | ✓ |
Ole Miss
@
Georgia
|
+2.0 | 140.4 | 63% | 78–74 | ✗ |
Dayton
@
VCU
|
+4.3 | 132.2 | 70% | 62–58 | ✗ |
East Tennessee State
@
UNC Greensboro
|
+7.8 | 131.0 | 81% | 65–91 | ✓ |
Ball State
@
Central Michigan
|
-6.4 | 144.4 | 27% | 65–51 | ✓ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Buffalo
|
+9.8 | 161.4 | 84% | 97–102 | ✓ |
Western Michigan
@
Miami (OH)
|
+2.1 | 147.1 | 59% | 78–85 | ✓ |
Toledo
@
Akron
|
+3.5 | 149.6 | 66% | 84–74 | ✗ |
Bowling Green
@
Kent State
|
+13.4 | 146.9 | 88% | 64–87 | ✓ |
Drake
@
Murray State
|
-2.8 | 146.4 | 40% | 92–68 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Northern Illinois
|
-0.8 | 150.3 | 50% | 82–76 | ✓ |
St. John's
@
Butler
|
+2.1 | 143.8 | 65% | 66–68 | ✓ |
NC State
@
Virginia
|
+6.4 | 140.5 | 76% | 50–63 | ✓ |
TCU
@
Kansas State
|
+3.4 | 147.5 | 66% | 61–82 | ✓ |
Maryland
@
Michigan State
|
+1.7 | 130.5 | 54% | 58–63 | ✓ |
South Carolina
@
Missouri
|
+15.5 | 148.7 | 89% | 74–83 | ✓ |
Arkansas
@
Kentucky
|
+3.2 | 140.0 | 64% | 88–73 | ✗ |
Rhode Island
@
Saint Louis
|
+9.0 | 142.3 | 83% | 71–76 | ✓ |
Colorado State
@
Air Force
|
+0.6 | 137.7 | 54% | 69–53 | ✗ |
San José State
@
Fresno State
|
-0.6 | 132.4 | 47% | 62–70 | ✗ |
Nevada
@
New Mexico
|
+3.6 | 150.2 | 69% | 77–76 | ✗ |
Loyola Maryland
@
Army
|
+8.5 | 135.7 | 80% | 70–76 | ✓ |
Hofstra
@
Northeastern
|
-7.3 | 144.0 | 23% | 72–53 | ✓ |
Creighton
@
Seton Hall
|
-1.0 | 134.9 | 47% | 75–62 | ✓ |
Nebraska
@
Michigan
|
+5.9 | 137.1 | 74% | 72–93 | ✓ |
Winthrop
@
UNC Asheville
|
+6.4 | 145.6 | 78% | 79–86 | ✓ |
Monmouth
@
Stony Brook
|
+3.2 | 130.4 | 64% | 61–54 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.