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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
10–4 on winners
spread MAE 10.6
14 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Duke
@
Miami
|
+2.7 | 144.2 | 62% | 59–81 | ✓ |
Lafayette
@
Holy Cross
|
-1.8 | 129.1 | 42% | 72–58 | ✓ |
Green Bay
@
Milwaukee
|
+15.3 | 141.8 | 90% | 80–79 | ✗ |
Idaho State
@
Northern Arizona
|
+2.0 | 146.2 | 61% | 75–70 | ✗ |
Grambling
@
Alabama A&M
|
-4.3 | 136.3 | 31% | 66–60 | ✓ |
Florida A&M
@
Prairie View A&M
|
+8.8 | 129.8 | 78% | 45–75 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Jackson State
|
+0.3 | 140.5 | 54% | 84–88 | ✓ |
Southern
@
Alabama State
|
-5.1 | 139.0 | 29% | 66–73 | ✗ |
Texas
@
Kansas
|
+2.7 | 148.2 | 63% | 80–88 | ✓ |
Bethune-Cookman
@
Texas Southern
|
+3.1 | 145.4 | 64% | 62–69 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Alcorn State
|
+11.0 | 137.6 | 87% | 70–81 | ✓ |
Weber State
@
Northern Colorado
|
-0.4 | 140.0 | 48% | 54–88 | ✗ |
Marquette
@
UConn
|
+6.0 | 152.9 | 71% | 72–87 | ✓ |
Rutgers
@
Indiana
|
+3.1 | 134.2 | 68% | 60–66 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.