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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
22–7 on winners
spread MAE 10.4
29 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami
@
Florida State
|
-5.3 | 152.1 | 28% | 86–63 | ✓ |
Tulsa
@
East Carolina
|
+4.6 | 142.3 | 67% | 66–76 | ✓ |
Notre Dame
@
NC State
|
+13.0 | 148.7 | 88% | 82–85 | ✓ |
DePaul
@
Georgetown
|
-0.5 | 150.2 | 47% | 76–81 | ✗ |
Ohio State
@
Illinois
|
+3.8 | 146.2 | 67% | 60–69 | ✓ |
LSU
@
Arkansas
|
+11.2 | 138.8 | 86% | 40–60 | ✓ |
Missouri
@
Ole Miss
|
+0.9 | 145.1 | 53% | 89–77 | ✗ |
Davidson
@
La Salle
|
-1.8 | 142.7 | 44% | 64–57 | ✓ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Toledo
|
+15.5 | 163.4 | 90% | 79–84 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Central Michigan
|
+0.4 | 147.9 | 53% | 83–61 | ✗ |
Miami (OH)
@
Akron
|
+13.7 | 145.4 | 88% | 68–73 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
Ball State
|
+5.2 | 152.6 | 74% | 91–65 | ✗ |
Western Michigan
@
Ohio
|
+9.7 | 152.1 | 84% | 76–88 | ✓ |
Oklahoma
@
TCU
|
+7.4 | 139.6 | 78% | 52–79 | ✓ |
Kent State
@
Northern Illinois
|
-12.9 | 139.2 | 14% | 76–86 | ✗ |
UIC
@
Missouri State
|
+9.7 | 132.4 | 85% | 59–63 | ✓ |
Murray State
@
Southern Illinois
|
+4.9 | 131.8 | 73% | 64–68 | ✓ |
Kansas State
@
Iowa State
|
+4.9 | 136.1 | 70% | 76–80 | ✓ |
Oklahoma State
@
Texas
|
+7.7 | 135.5 | 79% | 75–89 | ✓ |
Georgia Tech
@
Clemson
|
+9.7 | 142.7 | 84% | 51–72 | ✓ |
Indiana State
@
Drake
|
+7.1 | 145.9 | 78% | 68–70 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
Syracuse
|
-1.3 | 151.1 | 45% | 72–68 | ✓ |
Kentucky
@
Vanderbilt
|
+0.0 | 146.6 | 53% | 69–53 | ✗ |
Fresno State
@
Boise State
|
+14.3 | 133.7 | 88% | 53–63 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
San José State
|
+2.9 | 132.4 | 65% | 52–82 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
UNLV
|
+9.1 | 146.9 | 82% | 72–86 | ✓ |
UAlbany
@
New Hampshire
|
+5.3 | 138.5 | 71% | 65–84 | ✓ |
Xavier
@
UConn
|
+8.0 | 156.6 | 78% | 82–79 | ✗ |
Presbyterian
@
UNC Asheville
|
+10.4 | 135.5 | 85% | 80–88 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.