Betting Lines
| Spread | DEP -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | GTWN +110 DEP -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +5 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | DEP -0.8 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEP -0.8 (+5.8) | 153.0 (+4.0) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEP -1.6 (+6.6) | 153.6 (+3.4) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEP -0.5 (+5.5) | 150.2 (+6.8) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEP -0.9 (+5.9) | 151.9 (+5.1) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | GTWN 63 – 56 DEP |
| Jan 29, 2026 | GTWN 70 – 61 DEP |
| Jan 7, 2026 | DEP 56 – 50 GTWN |
| Mar 12, 2025 | DEP 71 – 67 GTWN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | DEP 83 – 77 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 3-17 |
| Home | 5-12 | 7-8 |
| Away | 1-11 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#233) | 0.9 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#272) | 0.52 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#260) | 0.54 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#274) | 0.518 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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