Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | SJSU -175 AF +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +30 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | SJSU -4.0 (+26.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.9 (+7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -4.2 (+25.8) | 130.2 (+3.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -3.5 (+26.5) | 129.1 (+4.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -2.9 (+27.1) | 132.4 (+1.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -3.2 (+26.8) | 132.5 (+1.5) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | SJSU 86 – 80 AF |
| Jan 14, 2026 | SJSU 70 – 62 AF |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SJSU 75 – 64 AF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SJSU 69 – 62 AF |
| Feb 14, 2024 | SJSU 73 – 66 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-9 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#133) | 1.8 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#86) | 0.18 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#86) | 0.18 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#80) | 0.476 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.5% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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