Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | FSU +130 MIA -167 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +23 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -5.7 (-17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (-5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -5.3 (-17.7) | 152.1 (-3.1) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -5.5 (-17.5) | 150.9 (-1.9) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -5.3 (-17.7) | 152.1 (-3.1) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -4.4 (-18.6) | 153.9 (-4.9) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | MIA 83 – 73 FSU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | FSU 65 – 63 MIA |
| Feb 20, 2025 | FSU 74 – 66 MIA |
| Jan 9, 2025 | FSU 80 – 65 MIA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | FSU 83 – 75 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 15-5 |
| Home | 5-11 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#171) | 9.1 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#195) | 2.33 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#193) | 2.74 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#201) | 0.607 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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